From probability to decimal price
A simple fair decimal price is the inverse of estimated probability. A 50% probability corresponds to 2.00 before margin and other adjustments. The difficult part is not the arithmetic; it is producing a calibrated probability from changing evidence.
Why BetStudio separates calculation from explanation
Deterministic code should calculate probability conversions, thresholds, freshness and eligibility. Language models can organize evidence and explain disagreement, but should not invent prices or silently change numeric rules.
- Show the estimate timestamp.
- Expose material assumptions.
- Record the price actually available.
- Define when the estimate becomes invalid.
A range is often more honest than a point
When evidence quality is limited, a fair-price range communicates uncertainty better than a precise number. Entry logic should then use conservative boundaries rather than the most optimistic point estimate.
These guides explain decision concepts. They do not provide a guarantee, individualized advice or an invitation to recover losses.